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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for January Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   18 29 29 29 32 32 32 34 34 34 35
Closed Higher   9 15 18 19 22 15 19 23 19 19 18
Exceeded High   7 13 17 17 18 14 17 22 14 14 10
Scenario Percentage   78% 87% 94% 89% 82% 93% 89% 96% 74% 74% 56%
Avg Max Increase   12.89% 13.66% 11.01% 10.14% 10.53% 9.18% 9.67% 12.88% 15.35% 9.33% 6.58%
Max Increase   22.43% 34.99% 27.05% 21.59% 33.70% 17.40% 18.83% 79.27% 47.85% 22.95% 11.63%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 14 20 18 16 16 16 19 16 13 16
Avg Max Decline   -0.85% -1.98% -2.10% -2.80% -1.82% -1.90% -2.24% -2.79% -1.88% -3.37% -1.73%
Max Decline   -6.27% -9.46% -13.58% -9.03% -6.16% -6.31% -14.00% -13.44% -12.35% -11.87% -5.06%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 5 11 7 8 7 7 8 7 5 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes     Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes  
Action     No     No   Yes Yes Yes No  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct
Tested Years   18 29 29 29 32 32 32 34 34 34 35
Closed Lower   9 14 11 10 10 17 13 11 15 15 17
Penetrated Low   5 7 5 5 5 10 9 9 10 12 14
Scenario Percentage   56% 50% 45% 50% 50% 59% 69% 82% 67% 80% 82%
Avg Max Decline   17.74% 12.03% 14.98% 8.73% 10.43% 9.71% 10.64% 12.61% 14.09% 15.50% 12.98%
Max Decline   24.71% 38.36% 41.78% 21.90% 22.43% 20.32% 32.60% 28.31% 48.27% 52.96% 29.41%
Avg Days To Max Decline   14 13 17 12 19 18 15 19 20 15 19
Avg Max Increase   -1.39% -1.81% -3.77% -4.41% -3.34% -1.38% -1.02% -3.81% -2.93% -3.64% -2.49%
Max Increase   -4.66% -5.73% -6.23% -15.43% -7.20% -3.31% -5.68% -23.15% -14.60% -19.20% -6.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase   4 5 13 6 10 5 6 13 11 8 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes Yes   Yes         Yes
Action   No   Yes No   No         Yes
High 86.09 83.32 84.03 82.02 82.55 82.90 77.46 76.85 84.10 86.22 93.20 92.32
Low 79.06 74.99 75.90 76.63 69.46 75.17 70.05 70.73 73.58 81.02 85.56 82.20
Close/Last 83.04 81.19 81.27 79.49 77.53 77.66 71.35 74.66 83.97 85.64 90.36 85.02

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