MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for October Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Dec 27, 2023 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul |
| Tested Years | 18 | 29 | 29 | 29 | 32 | 32 | 32 | 34 | 34 | 34 | 34 | |
| Closed Higher | 6 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 23 | 16 | 18 | 23 | |
| Exceeded High | 6 | 10 | 14 | 15 | 14 | 18 | 18 | 20 | 12 | 17 | 18 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 100% | 71% | 82% | 94% | 78% | 95% | 90% | 87% | 75% | 94% | 78% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 9.07% | 7.28% | 8.74% | 11.03% | 14.72% | 11.77% | 11.19% | 10.38% | 10.98% | 10.69% | 10.77% | |
| Max Increase | 19.36% | 12.42% | 17.15% | 26.13% | 42.60% | 33.62% | 23.63% | 36.25% | 17.06% | 21.33% | 55.97% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 14 | 12 | 18 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 15 | 18 | 15 | 15 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -0.45% | -0.57% | -1.62% | -2.14% | -2.37% | -2.20% | -3.11% | -2.18% | -1.91% | -2.77% | -1.17% | |
| Max Decline | -2.32% | -2.76% | -8.31% | -6.90% | -10.00% | -14.45% | -9.23% | -7.18% | -6.28% | -15.02% | -3.59% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 6 | 9 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 7 | 2 | |
| 2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | Yes | No | No | No | Yes | Yes | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
