MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for July Cotton(ICE) as of May 17, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
| Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 24 | 17 | 27 | 22 | 31 | 22 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 21 | 24 | |
| Exceeded High | 15 | 15 | 19 | 18 | 26 | 18 | 21 | 16 | 19 | 15 | 9 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 63% | 88% | 70% | 82% | 84% | 82% | 88% | 64% | 73% | 71% | 38% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 12.43% | 11.39% | 7.51% | 8.81% | 11.41% | 11.52% | 7.10% | 10.65% | 8.59% | 8.68% | 3.25% | |
| Max Increase | 38.43% | 44.56% | 25.54% | 22.09% | 55.11% | 35.33% | 16.56% | 35.75% | 22.13% | 19.49% | 7.68% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 18 | 18 | 24 | 20 | 14 | 20 | 20 | 15 | 10 | 6 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.75% | -1.88% | -1.03% | -1.92% | -2.39% | -2.12% | -2.73% | -2.27% | -3.26% | -2.50% | -0.37% | |
| Max Decline | -4.46% | -4.87% | -5.00% | -6.60% | -10.31% | -6.34% | -10.16% | -6.25% | -9.31% | -7.63% | -2.10% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 7 | 6 | 5 | 7 | 12 | 7 | 12 | 6 | 9 | 4 | 1 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
| Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | |||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
