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ScenarioSM Study for July Lean Hogs(CME) as of May 17, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 22 | 26 | 29 | 33 | 22 | 31 | 23 | 23 | 27 | 19 | 21 | |
Exceeded High | 19 | 23 | 24 | 27 | 19 | 27 | 19 | 20 | 20 | 14 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 86% | 88% | 83% | 82% | 86% | 87% | 83% | 87% | 74% | 74% | 67% | |
Avg Max Increase | 5.63% | 5.95% | 5.51% | 5.29% | 7.64% | 8.09% | 10.38% | 8.57% | 9.34% | 8.39% | 4.38% | |
Max Increase | 10.46% | 13.33% | 13.16% | 17.17% | 22.94% | 24.71% | 30.88% | 20.93% | 30.49% | 30.02% | 10.69% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 23 | 20 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 19 | 17 | 18 | 5 | 6 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.93% | -1.81% | -1.95% | -2.85% | -1.04% | -2.11% | -1.95% | -2.10% | -2.41% | -1.44% | -0.90% | |
Max Decline | -6.32% | -6.77% | -5.05% | -8.98% | -3.43% | -7.89% | -5.54% | -7.21% | -7.13% | -3.75% | -4.18% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 12 | 10 | 12 | 7 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 13 | 3 | 2 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.