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ScenarioSM Study for December Lean Hogs(CME) as of Jun 23, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 32 | 20 | 26 | 26 | 22 | 17 | 23 | 18 | 30 | 16 | 27 | |
Exceeded High | 25 | 15 | 23 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 17 | 15 | 24 | 11 | 11 | |
Scenario Percentage | 78% | 75% | 88% | 62% | 77% | 82% | 74% | 83% | 80% | 69% | 41% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.75% | 10.66% | 7.34% | 6.36% | 8.04% | 6.76% | 7.11% | 9.94% | 9.18% | 10.09% | 4.45% | |
Max Increase | 34.24% | 39.74% | 23.60% | 11.35% | 30.02% | 12.13% | 14.77% | 32.05% | 21.17% | 19.92% | 12.68% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 21 | 20 | 17 | 16 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 13 | 7 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.93% | -1.76% | -1.64% | -1.37% | -3.00% | -1.05% | -3.64% | -3.22% | -2.82% | -2.96% | -0.83% | |
Max Decline | -5.66% | -5.19% | -7.83% | -3.59% | -8.24% | -4.98% | -6.72% | -13.02% | -11.48% | -7.61% | -2.12% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 15 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 14 | 6 | 13 | 11 | 6 | 6 | 1 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.