MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for July Oats(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
| Tested Years | 37 | 43 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 14 | 24 | 29 | 21 | 21 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 26 | 23 | 24 | |
| Exceeded High | 10 | 22 | 22 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 15 | 20 | 18 | 13 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 71% | 92% | 76% | 67% | 62% | 78% | 65% | 79% | 77% | 78% | 54% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 10.91% | 10.23% | 8.02% | 8.07% | 12.97% | 11.74% | 11.09% | 11.22% | 19.50% | 16.88% | 9.79% | |
| Max Increase | 30.78% | 33.88% | 20.81% | 19.12% | 39.32% | 33.53% | 27.06% | 22.68% | 137.82% | 115.34% | 16.44% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 14 | 16 | 14 | 13 | 13 | 15 | 13 | 16 | 10 | 8 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -3.20% | -1.72% | -1.80% | -1.62% | -1.42% | -1.80% | -2.19% | -2.31% | -4.32% | -3.55% | -1.21% | |
| Max Decline | -8.81% | -6.49% | -11.62% | -6.45% | -6.35% | -4.30% | -11.43% | -7.63% | -24.10% | -11.86% | -7.66% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 10 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 10 | 9 | 9 | 11 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||||
| Action | No | No | Yes | |||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
