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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Palladium(NYMEX) as of Aug 18, 2023
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 33 34 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 45
Closed Higher   18 12 13 25 17 27 22 24 28 34 26
Exceeded High   10 10 12 22 15 24 17 21 25 28 17
Scenario Percentage   56% 83% 92% 88% 88% 89% 77% 88% 89% 82% 65%
Avg Max Increase   9.75% 9.22% 12.09% 10.47% 13.29% 12.74% 12.64% 19.51% 24.89% 18.64% 9.41%
Max Increase   34.24% 22.57% 27.79% 32.84% 43.03% 35.66% 32.67% 86.19% 85.89% 72.27% 26.13%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 15 20 15 16 16 17 18 18 18 18
Avg Max Decline   -4.16% -3.00% -0.79% -3.18% -1.08% -2.61% -2.44% -4.05% -2.48% -2.96% -2.57%
Max Decline   -10.81% -11.93% -6.65% -9.29% -4.50% -15.11% -13.35% -15.60% -7.88% -9.85% -8.11%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 7 10 9 8 9 6 9 6 7 4
2023 Contract Condition   Yes     Yes   Yes   Yes      
Action   No     Yes   Yes   No      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   32 33 34 40 41 42 43 44 45 45 45
Closed Lower   13 20 21 15 24 15 21 20 17 11 19
Penetrated Low   11 12 16 14 18 12 13 13 9 6 6
Scenario Percentage   85% 60% 76% 93% 75% 80% 62% 65% 53% 55% 32%
Avg Max Decline   9.30% 9.17% 8.92% 14.24% 12.97% 12.52% 13.45% 12.09% 11.20% 6.66% 8.20%
Max Decline   22.17% 21.59% 22.58% 48.57% 45.76% 22.13% 27.97% 44.17% 29.35% 18.95% 19.57%
Avg Days To Max Decline   15 16 14 18 18 17 17 15 21 9 9
Avg Max Increase   -1.72% -2.00% -1.85% -0.84% -2.66% -4.29% -5.86% -2.44% -4.94% -3.42% -0.51%
Max Increase   -10.08% -8.34% -11.53% -11.96% -13.41% -16.66% -18.35% -10.50% -14.46% -7.74% -3.04%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 8 6 7 11 12 11 4 11 8 2
2023 Contract Condition     Yes Yes   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes No   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes Yes
High 2966.20 2464.60 2250.80 2054.20 2183.00 2300.40 2281.50 2357.50 2125.50 2003.00 1841.00 1698.50
Low 2092.00 2129.00 1898.30 1788.80 1846.30 1989.00 1957.50 1823.00 1774.00 1640.50 1582.00 1354.00
Close/Last 2257.10 2319.60 2015.60 1928.40 2146.50 2078.80 2187.80 1844.30 1866.00 1798.00 1648.30 1404.40

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