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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Soybeans(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   21 20 22 19 23 27 20 22 24 26 25
Exceeded High   15 12 17 13 19 18 17 19 21 21 14
Scenario Percentage   71% 60% 77% 68% 83% 67% 85% 86% 88% 81% 56%
Avg Max Increase   11.46% 10.95% 8.74% 10.69% 7.92% 7.04% 8.80% 8.25% 7.68% 8.28% 4.87%
Max Increase   49.09% 30.88% 30.28% 20.56% 26.01% 22.99% 30.41% 29.29% 14.97% 22.90% 9.35%
Avg Days To Max Increase   15 15 15 18 21 14 17 16 16 14 10
Avg Max Decline   -0.49% -2.39% -1.03% -2.02% -2.58% -2.01% -2.32% -1.93% -1.72% -1.74% -1.14%
Max Decline   -3.82% -6.74% -3.73% -5.75% -10.89% -5.30% -9.44% -7.40% -5.45% -5.01% -2.62%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 6 4 6 8 8 11 8 7 9 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes   Yes Yes       Yes  
Action   Yes No No   Yes No       Yes  
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 25 23 26 22 18 25 23 21 19 20
Penetrated Low   21 21 12 24 17 11 22 19 16 17 7
Scenario Percentage   88% 84% 52% 92% 77% 61% 88% 83% 76% 89% 35%
Avg Max Decline   8.70% 6.94% 8.90% 6.25% 6.52% 6.90% 5.62% 5.17% 5.39% 4.55% 4.01%
Max Decline   15.90% 24.91% 36.89% 21.59% 17.79% 12.61% 16.45% 15.05% 13.88% 11.73% 7.22%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 16 10 13 15 17 16 15 12 10 10
Avg Max Increase   -2.58% -1.94% -0.66% -1.57% -2.04% -2.60% -2.02% -2.07% -2.45% -1.25% -1.10%
Max Increase   -10.08% -11.53% -2.67% -7.24% -6.17% -7.48% -6.92% -7.36% -7.12% -4.57% -2.27%
Avg Days to Max Increase   6 8 5 4 5 13 11 8 8 2 2
2024 Contract Condition         Yes     Yes Yes Yes   Yes
Action         Yes     Yes Yes No   Not Yet
High 1298.50 1355.75 1420.75 1419.25 1405.00 1358.00 1419.75 1375.50 1300.00 1232.00 1226.75 1201.75
Low 1150.75 1162.25 1310.75 1299.00 1318.00 1295.25 1333.25 1306.25 1199.00 1128.50 1137.25 1131.75
Close/Last 1165.00 1314.50 1334.25 1386.75 1322.00 1338.75 1375.25 1307.25 1232.75 1140.75 1191.50 1145.50

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