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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   22 21 22 19 24 17 20 23 18 24 19
Exceeded High   16 18 16 13 20 14 15 16 13 14 13
Scenario Percentage   73% 86% 73% 68% 83% 82% 75% 70% 72% 58% 68%
Avg Max Increase   14.26% 12.18% 11.19% 11.01% 10.16% 12.87% 10.22% 10.51% 9.86% 11.47% 4.92%
Max Increase   45.63% 28.87% 29.17% 25.47% 36.86% 26.00% 20.59% 26.59% 23.55% 21.29% 11.69%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 15 17 16 16 16 17 14 19 12 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.91% -1.99% -1.62% -2.42% -1.64% -2.03% -2.44% -2.37% -3.35% -2.01% -0.72%
Max Decline   -7.01% -6.47% -10.55% -6.09% -7.78% -6.98% -8.91% -6.22% -9.14% -5.56% -2.51%
Avg Days to Max Decline   9 6 8 7 7 4 6 9 15 5 3
2024 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes   Yes Yes      
Action       No   Yes   Yes No      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   21 24 23 26 20 28 24 22 27 21 26
Penetrated Low   15 22 19 21 16 25 17 17 22 19 16
Scenario Percentage   71% 92% 83% 81% 80% 89% 71% 77% 81% 90% 62%
Avg Max Decline   7.89% 6.18% 7.94% 7.21% 7.86% 6.03% 7.40% 8.05% 8.01% 6.39% 3.23%
Max Decline   13.60% 15.57% 15.14% 23.98% 33.63% 17.28% 16.44% 27.78% 18.26% 12.77% 8.78%
Avg Days To Max Decline   17 18 17 18 13 13 15 15 17 11 8
Avg Max Increase   -2.29% -3.46% -3.30% -1.89% -2.00% -2.01% -2.08% -2.38% -2.08% -1.84% -0.97%
Max Increase   -9.22% -15.36% -12.52% -7.06% -4.74% -6.64% -7.78% -7.11% -5.44% -5.77% -3.42%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 11 7 10 9 11 4 8 8 7 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes Yes   Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Not Yet
High 419.90 409.90 401.60 422.00 412.00 408.00 400.80 417.50 445.10 414.20 385.60 370.40
Low 383.70 390.40 354.10 353.50 377.60 369.80 374.70 365.30 402.60 384.30 346.20 326.70
Close/Last 401.80 395.60 357.40 385.50 382.80 396.10 375.00 406.80 414.20 386.00 368.30 333.30

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