Moore Research Center, Inc.

  • Increase font size
  • Default font size
  • Decrease font size
Home MRCI Online
Print
New Windows

MRCI's Scenario Study

MRCI Logo
MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of May 17, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   23 19 24 18 20 24 19 25 21 28 26
Exceeded High   17 12 20 15 15 16 15 18 18 19 15
Scenario Percentage   74% 63% 83% 83% 75% 67% 79% 72% 86% 68% 58%
Avg Max Increase   11.87% 11.26% 9.03% 11.55% 10.18% 10.25% 9.50% 11.48% 9.85% 10.84% 6.08%
Max Increase   37.18% 23.73% 31.71% 22.51% 21.50% 25.29% 22.64% 28.27% 24.53% 36.48% 11.24%
Avg Days To Max Increase   16 14 14 15 19 15 18 19 19 12 8
Avg Max Decline   -1.43% -1.98% -1.34% -2.16% -3.05% -2.14% -2.87% -2.24% -2.50% -2.26% -1.50%
Max Decline   -11.10% -5.97% -6.62% -6.65% -9.93% -5.80% -9.58% -8.08% -7.04% -6.81% -3.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline   8 7 7 5 9 9 12 7 9 9 2
2024 Contract Condition   Yes   Yes   Yes Yes       Yes Yes
Action   No   Yes   Yes No       Yes Yes
Copyright © 1989- Moore Research Center, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   22 26 20 27 25 21 26 20 24 17 19
Penetrated Low   20 22 15 24 17 16 22 19 17 11 9
Scenario Percentage   91% 85% 75% 89% 68% 76% 85% 95% 71% 65% 47%
Avg Max Decline   7.30% 6.63% 7.34% 5.68% 6.79% 6.53% 7.48% 6.05% 6.57% 5.59% 4.40%
Max Decline   13.51% 23.54% 33.26% 17.26% 15.72% 14.78% 16.04% 15.96% 13.29% 10.94% 9.83%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 17 13 14 16 16 16 15 15 10 10
Avg Max Increase   -4.18% -1.88% -1.87% -1.82% -1.89% -2.42% -1.89% -1.96% -3.00% -1.56% -1.24%
Max Increase   -15.00% -7.83% -4.84% -6.01% -7.59% -7.49% -6.22% -5.70% -8.60% -3.78% -3.54%
Avg Days to Max Increase   8 8 6 10 6 9 7 9 12 6 3
2024 Contract Condition     Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes    
Action     Yes   Yes     Yes Yes No    
High 398.10 416.30 406.00 401.90 396.60 411.30 435.90 407.40 384.50 365.20 347.60 354.60
Low 350.60 350.00 372.50 366.10 372.00 366.50 398.20 381.60 347.40 323.20 325.40 325.10
Close/Last 353.60 380.20 377.00 392.50 373.10 402.30 408.00 384.80 364.10 329.20 337.70 346.30

Banner

Login

Main Menu

MRCI Online

Free Links

Newsflash

The world will still run for decades on fossil-fuel energy --- crude oil, gasoline, heating oil, natural gas.  Buy 'em?  Sell 'em?  When?  Just since 2008, crude oil traded at $147/barrel, collapsed to -$40.32/barrel in 2020, ran to higher than $130 in early 2022, and the traded less than half that in May!

MRCI's newest special report is complete with seasonal patterns & weekly charts: for each delivery month and several spreads against each; for product spreads; for cash & basis; and for 3/2/1 and 2/1/1 crack spreads.  Better yet, this 284-page volume presents 190 seasonal & spread strategies to anticipate throughout the next 12-months. Order your copy today! https://www.mrci.com/products/energy