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ScenarioSM Study for July Soybean Oil(CBOT) as of Oct 06, 2023 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 25 | 17 | 28 | 23 | 19 | 20 | 27 | 20 | 25 | 16 | 21 | |
Exceeded High | 19 | 15 | 19 | 17 | 15 | 17 | 25 | 18 | 19 | 12 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 76% | 88% | 68% | 74% | 79% | 85% | 93% | 90% | 76% | 75% | 62% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.88% | 9.83% | 10.44% | 8.91% | 12.46% | 11.04% | 8.72% | 12.01% | 10.62% | 11.58% | 6.83% | |
Max Increase | 25.86% | 22.72% | 21.10% | 22.63% | 34.71% | 33.75% | 29.90% | 38.87% | 43.99% | 31.88% | 19.55% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 18 | 18 | 14 | 19 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 12 | 11 | 9 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.41% | -2.15% | -1.47% | -2.48% | -2.02% | -2.33% | -2.10% | -1.99% | -1.69% | -2.15% | -0.85% | |
Max Decline | -6.87% | -5.45% | -4.94% | -8.73% | -5.88% | -6.99% | -6.87% | -4.49% | -5.23% | -6.10% | -2.79% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 5 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 10 | 7 | 8 | 3 | 7 | 2 | |
2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | No | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.