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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of May 10, 2021
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   23 26 26 27 29 29 30 30 32 32 32
Closed Higher   15 18 17 12 18 18 17 17 15 17 16
Exceeded High   14 17 14 11 16 17 12 13 11 16 14
Scenario Percentage   93% 94% 82% 92% 89% 94% 71% 76% 73% 94% 88%
Avg Max Increase   9.58% 9.46% 9.58% 9.02% 10.14% 9.19% 11.75% 9.48% 9.86% 11.30% 8.22%
Max Increase   20.68% 19.57% 34.33% 17.69% 27.26% 21.33% 30.49% 22.04% 15.86% 23.85% 16.23%
Avg Days To Max Increase   21 18 13 16 18 19 16 13 22 15 14
Avg Max Decline   -1.97% -2.17% -1.31% -2.05% -2.04% -2.04% -1.94% -1.77% -1.71% -2.55% -1.56%
Max Decline   -13.01% -8.68% -5.58% -6.14% -13.38% -12.94% -10.08% -9.44% -4.38% -9.25% -6.48%
Avg Days to Max Decline   12 9 6 9 5 7 6 5 9 6 4
2021 Contract Condition         Yes Yes Yes Yes     Yes Yes
Action         Yes Yes Yes No     Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   23 26 26 27 29 29 30 30 32 32 32
Closed Lower   8 8 9 15 11 11 13 13 17 15 16
Penetrated Low   3 4 4 9 8 10 9 11 16 12 8
Scenario Percentage   38% 50% 44% 60% 73% 91% 69% 85% 94% 80% 50%
Avg Max Decline   18.18% 8.44% 10.32% 8.72% 9.88% 9.48% 13.69% 15.47% 16.92% 20.51% 16.82%
Max Decline   38.87% 19.50% 21.38% 19.16% 31.22% 27.63% 46.39% 50.65% 44.54% 40.79% 33.48%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 7 20 18 15 18 18 14 17 19 18
Avg Max Increase   -2.42% -2.43% -3.03% -1.43% -0.67% -2.50% -4.90% -1.99% -3.43% -3.28% -3.75%
Max Increase   -4.99% -6.34% -6.05% -3.06% -5.56% -13.38% -16.86% -9.81% -10.38% -12.11% -11.30%
Avg Days to Max Increase   13 7 11 5 6 14 16 5 6 11 5
2021 Contract Condition   Yes Yes Yes         Yes Yes    
Action   Yes Yes No         Yes Yes    
High 62.39 58.18 53.24 40.95 40.82 44.68 46.13 47.89 47.53 44.62 49.00 52.46
Low 54.33 50.71 34.74 31.00 33.04 39.17 42.04 44.69 41.35 38.14 36.83 46.81
Close/Last 54.83 50.71 38.51 34.89 40.60 42.40 45.07 46.69 43.46 38.85 47.95 51.80

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