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ScenarioSM Study for May Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Sep 16, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
Tested Years | 17 | 27 | 28 | 28 | 31 | 31 | 31 | 32 | 32 | 33 | 33 | |
Closed Higher | 11 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 19 | 21 | |
Exceeded High | 9 | 12 | 17 | 17 | 13 | 13 | 9 | 14 | 15 | 17 | 17 | |
Scenario Percentage | 82% | 92% | 89% | 94% | 76% | 87% | 64% | 88% | 94% | 89% | 81% | |
Avg Max Increase | 11.72% | 8.64% | 8.86% | 8.12% | 9.82% | 8.91% | 8.61% | 11.15% | 13.97% | 17.37% | 10.80% | |
Max Increase | 32.73% | 16.30% | 24.89% | 17.56% | 29.43% | 21.10% | 15.07% | 23.89% | 32.98% | 58.37% | 42.01% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 13 | 21 | 15 | 18 | 14 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.34% | -1.01% | -1.60% | -1.88% | -1.43% | -1.53% | -1.77% | -2.27% | -3.05% | -2.78% | -1.52% | |
Max Decline | -5.39% | -5.44% | -11.46% | -12.32% | -7.43% | -8.00% | -3.80% | -9.12% | -13.71% | -12.55% | -4.76% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 4 | 6 | 6 | 8 | 7 | 4 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.