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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for February Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 16, 2024
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   37 38 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Higher   21 25 27 21 21 27 22 21 20 19 22
Exceeded High   20 24 22 15 19 25 17 17 13 17 19
Scenario Percentage   95% 96% 81% 71% 90% 93% 77% 81% 65% 89% 86%
Avg Max Increase   9.78% 8.90% 8.18% 10.31% 8.88% 10.12% 10.62% 8.36% 12.43% 14.73% 9.36%
Max Increase   22.30% 19.47% 31.97% 19.87% 21.18% 63.08% 43.64% 24.44% 27.15% 31.79% 16.99%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 17 14 17 17 20 14 14 23 12 12
Avg Max Decline   -1.43% -2.32% -1.74% -0.87% -2.23% -2.54% -2.82% -2.62% -2.33% -2.82% -1.27%
Max Decline   -12.87% -9.77% -5.06% -5.01% -13.43% -13.67% -12.70% -12.01% -7.14% -9.95% -6.17%
Avg Days to Max Decline   11 9 10 6 10 8 9 5 7 5 4
2024 Contract Condition       Yes   Yes Yes Yes Yes      
Action       No   Yes Yes Yes No      
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
Tested Years   37 38 39 40 40 41 41 41 41 41 41
Closed Lower   16 12 12 19 19 14 18 20 21 22 19
Penetrated Low   8 7 5 13 13 10 11 16 20 19 10
Scenario Percentage   50% 58% 42% 68% 68% 71% 61% 80% 95% 86% 53%
Avg Max Decline   14.40% 9.54% 7.67% 8.63% 10.35% 13.21% 13.98% 13.03% 15.07% 16.48% 17.90%
Max Decline   40.94% 21.42% 13.76% 19.74% 33.64% 26.95% 46.60% 50.99% 49.25% 41.42% 36.71%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 14 20 17 17 18 18 15 18 13 15
Avg Max Increase   -3.04% -3.32% -2.59% -1.21% -2.46% -2.81% -2.49% -3.34% -2.49% -3.02% -4.02%
Max Increase   -7.60% -8.95% -6.65% -6.17% -9.19% -14.94% -14.44% -19.00% -5.31% -10.68% -15.15%
Avg Days to Max Increase   9 7 12 3 8 12 10 8 5 8 4
2024 Contract Condition   Yes Yes   Yes         Yes Yes Yes
Action   Yes No   No         Yes Yes Not Yet
High 78.62 76.70 77.04 77.73 72.42 72.14 79.48 81.60 88.21 86.93 82.64 76.81
Low 71.45 70.58 64.24 70.91 65.24 65.90 68.86 76.43 80.80 77.86 72.53 67.98
Close/Last 75.66 73.65 72.66 73.23 66.75 69.98 79.35 80.93 85.27 79.96 76.05 71.65

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