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ScenarioSM Study for May Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 20, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar |
Tested Years | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | |
Closed Higher | 19 | 21 | 24 | 23 | 20 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 22 | 25 | 26 | |
Exceeded High | 15 | 19 | 21 | 18 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 21 | 22 | 21 | |
Scenario Percentage | 79% | 90% | 88% | 78% | 85% | 67% | 89% | 100% | 95% | 88% | 81% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.40% | 8.17% | 8.98% | 9.79% | 7.36% | 10.54% | 13.25% | 12.36% | 14.53% | 14.43% | 8.68% | |
Max Increase | 19.67% | 19.00% | 47.75% | 33.91% | 22.30% | 17.51% | 24.18% | 33.13% | 48.65% | 43.26% | 25.31% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 19 | 21 | 14 | 14 | 23 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 13 | 14 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.37% | -1.90% | -1.96% | -1.62% | -2.31% | -2.41% | -2.08% | -2.75% | -3.67% | -2.73% | -2.22% | |
Max Decline | -7.04% | -11.71% | -12.77% | -7.53% | -11.42% | -9.01% | -8.59% | -10.12% | -12.77% | -15.55% | -8.09% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 7 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 7 | 3 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.