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ScenarioSM Study for June Crude Oil(NYM) as of May 21, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
Tested Years | 36 | 38 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 40 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 41 | 42 | |
Closed Higher | 21 | 24 | 22 | 19 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 23 | 25 | 26 | 26 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 22 | 16 | 17 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 22 | 22 | 24 | 18 | |
Scenario Percentage | 95% | 92% | 73% | 89% | 67% | 84% | 100% | 96% | 88% | 92% | 69% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.71% | 8.38% | 10.60% | 7.30% | 10.09% | 12.76% | 11.74% | 13.50% | 13.27% | 10.87% | 7.45% | |
Max Increase | 19.13% | 43.12% | 30.49% | 22.29% | 16.58% | 23.16% | 30.95% | 45.35% | 33.96% | 27.52% | 28.94% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 18 | 20 | 15 | 13 | 23 | 15 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 13 | 12 | |
Avg Max Decline | -2.12% | -2.73% | -1.87% | -2.24% | -2.38% | -2.19% | -2.54% | -3.38% | -2.52% | -3.12% | -2.10% | |
Max Decline | -12.23% | -12.62% | -6.96% | -11.29% | -8.76% | -8.80% | -9.65% | -11.76% | -14.69% | -10.69% | -6.38% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 11 | 7 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 9 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 3 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.