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ScenarioSM Study for February Gold(CMX) as of May 10, 2021 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 17 | 20 | 21 | 16 | 22 | 25 | 26 | 19 | 23 | 22 | 23 | |
Exceeded High | 12 | 14 | 16 | 12 | 19 | 20 | 19 | 14 | 19 | 20 | 17 | |
Scenario Percentage | 71% | 70% | 76% | 75% | 86% | 80% | 73% | 74% | 83% | 91% | 74% | |
Avg Max Increase | 8.16% | 6.08% | 6.93% | 6.42% | 11.77% | 10.56% | 8.82% | 7.40% | 11.17% | 10.79% | 5.01% | |
Max Increase | 24.03% | 13.38% | 26.39% | 14.87% | 42.74% | 36.10% | 21.89% | 17.86% | 102.79% | 61.37% | 12.93% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 14 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 11 | 16 | 15 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.85% | -1.71% | -1.39% | -1.19% | -1.83% | -0.74% | -1.55% | -1.38% | -2.05% | -1.49% | -1.66% | |
Max Decline | -1.91% | -6.79% | -4.28% | -3.92% | -4.04% | -3.70% | -6.39% | -3.39% | -9.50% | -9.36% | -4.33% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 6 | 4 | 7 | 3 | 7 | 6 | 4 | |
2021 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.