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ScenarioSM Study for February Lean Hogs(CME) as of May 16, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 24 | 29 | 24 | 22 | 25 | 18 | 28 | 23 | 30 | 17 | 24 | |
Exceeded High | 20 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 17 | 14 | 24 | 18 | 21 | 11 | 17 | |
Scenario Percentage | 83% | 66% | 79% | 68% | 68% | 78% | 86% | 78% | 70% | 65% | 71% | |
Avg Max Increase | 6.38% | 5.26% | 6.53% | 6.47% | 6.25% | 8.99% | 8.17% | 7.87% | 6.25% | 7.81% | 3.50% | |
Max Increase | 23.28% | 17.39% | 19.99% | 12.13% | 12.61% | 16.92% | 19.63% | 21.87% | 25.48% | 13.53% | 11.94% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 14 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 7 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.31% | -1.36% | -2.87% | -0.90% | -2.84% | -2.28% | -2.56% | -2.74% | -3.29% | -3.60% | -0.69% | |
Max Decline | -4.14% | -4.85% | -13.44% | -4.38% | -7.47% | -5.20% | -10.74% | -10.34% | -8.14% | -5.96% | -2.49% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 12 | 13 | 7 | 9 | 8 | 5 | 8 | 7 | 6 | 2 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
Action | No | No | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.