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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Copper(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2013
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   19 33 22 22 19 23 24 26 26 31 20
Exceeded High   18 23 18 15 15 21 24 25 21 22 12
Scenario Percentage   95% 70% 82% 68% 79% 91% 100% 96% 81% 71% 60%
Avg Max Increase   9.18% 8.11% 9.01% 13.19% 10.96% 11.04% 10.49% 12.99% 12.68% 11.80% 8.14%
Max Increase   29.45% 35.14% 25.32% 34.02% 18.99% 37.37% 41.67% 42.84% 45.27% 68.90% 24.72%
Avg Days To Max Increase   18 18 16 20 20 17 18 18 14 14 13
Avg Max Decline   -0.90% -2.29% -2.29% -2.22% -1.77% -3.44% -2.23% -3.36% -2.40% -3.05% -1.63%
Max Decline   -4.42% -14.38% -10.07% -8.34% -5.67% -9.98% -8.55% -11.06% -10.75% -8.66% -5.67%
Avg Days to Max Decline   5 11 13 9 10 8 9 9 5 8 3
2012 Contract Condition   Yes Yes     Yes     Yes Yes   Yes
Action   Yes Yes     No     Yes No   Not Yet
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   43 43 44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   24 10 21 23 25 22 21 19 19 14 25
Penetrated Low   14 8 15 20 18 16 13 10 12 11 17
Scenario Percentage   58% 80% 71% 87% 72% 73% 62% 53% 63% 79% 68%
Avg Max Decline   5.96% 8.71% 14.28% 9.10% 9.19% 10.13% 7.42% 8.03% 8.33% 8.30% 5.62%
Max Decline   16.44% 20.64% 50.39% 46.68% 31.11% 23.48% 16.91% 12.64% 32.96% 29.02% 13.11%
Avg Days To Max Decline   18 25 21 17 14 16 19 10 15 18 12
Avg Max Increase   -1.64% -1.29% -1.39% -1.71% -1.79% -2.13% -1.45% -1.52% -2.79% -4.39% -1.39%
Max Increase   -7.97% -7.59% -8.76% -4.73% -8.81% -9.98% -5.61% -6.04% -8.44% -8.96% -5.53%
Avg Days to Max Increase   12 14 8 7 3 9 10 7 9 15 4
2012 Contract Condition       Yes Yes   Yes Yes     Yes  
Action       Yes Yes   No No     Yes  
High 429.25 430.50 451.35 452.60 418.50 375.60 367.75 363.75 394.05 399.50 394.95 395.80
Low 394.00 408.00 432.40 393.15 316.70 305.00 323.95 325.40 339.70 370.25 371.40 356.90
Close/Last 422.55 430.50 451.35 422.75 318.50 366.05 358.50 344.75 380.10 387.95 382.50 383.35

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