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ScenarioSM Study for March Brent Crude Oil(ICE) as of Jan 01, 2018 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec |
Tested Years | 19 | 22 | 22 | 23 | 25 | 25 | 26 | 26 | 28 | 28 | 28 | |
Closed Higher | 13 | 16 | 15 | 10 | 15 | 15 | 15 | 14 | 13 | 14 | 13 | |
Exceeded High | 13 | 15 | 13 | 9 | 13 | 14 | 11 | 11 | 9 | 13 | 11 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 94% | 87% | 90% | 87% | 93% | 73% | 79% | 69% | 93% | 85% | |
Avg Max Increase | 9.72% | 9.00% | 9.57% | 9.22% | 11.16% | 9.67% | 11.76% | 9.49% | 9.08% | 9.85% | 8.23% | |
Max Increase | 20.68% | 19.57% | 34.33% | 17.69% | 27.26% | 21.33% | 30.49% | 22.04% | 15.29% | 23.85% | 16.23% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 20 | 18 | 12 | 16 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 14 | 21 | 15 | 15 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.95% | -2.36% | -1.23% | -1.35% | -1.76% | -1.05% | -1.87% | -1.79% | -1.71% | -2.75% | -1.54% | |
Max Decline | -13.01% | -8.68% | -5.58% | -3.50% | -13.38% | -8.95% | -10.08% | -9.44% | -4.38% | -9.25% | -6.48% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 12 | 9 | 6 | 8 | 6 | 7 | 6 | 5 | 12 | 6 | 4 | |
2017 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.