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ScenarioSM Study for May Lumber(CME) as of Sep 16, 2022 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
Tested Years | 33 | 41 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 14 | 19 | 22 | 14 | 26 | 31 | 28 | 24 | 22 | 21 | 21 | |
Exceeded High | 9 | 14 | 16 | 13 | 20 | 24 | 25 | 20 | 17 | 15 | 13 | |
Scenario Percentage | 64% | 74% | 73% | 93% | 77% | 77% | 89% | 83% | 77% | 71% | 62% | |
Avg Max Increase | 10.92% | 10.93% | 8.27% | 9.70% | 10.09% | 12.31% | 11.93% | 12.01% | 15.70% | 15.85% | 7.40% | |
Max Increase | 66.56% | 44.89% | 22.53% | 26.86% | 57.76% | 51.38% | 50.87% | 58.10% | 77.22% | 69.58% | 14.04% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 19 | 18 | 17 | 15 | 23 | 21 | 17 | 16 | 20 | 10 | 9 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.29% | -1.75% | -1.99% | -2.57% | -2.97% | -3.10% | -3.99% | -1.92% | -3.63% | -1.55% | -0.60% | |
Max Decline | -5.12% | -5.18% | -5.61% | -8.96% | -10.86% | -8.19% | -19.66% | -9.52% | -8.45% | -6.87% | -2.30% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 6 | 10 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 11 | 11 | 6 | 10 | 4 | 1 | |
2022 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Not Yet |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.