MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for December Palladium(NYMEX) as of Sep 29, 2023 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov |
| Tested Years | 39 | 39 | 39 | 41 | 43 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 28 | 23 | 24 | 22 | 17 | 16 | 27 | 18 | 26 | 24 | 23 | |
| Exceeded High | 25 | 15 | 19 | 14 | 12 | 15 | 23 | 16 | 23 | 18 | 18 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 89% | 65% | 79% | 64% | 71% | 94% | 85% | 89% | 88% | 75% | 78% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 17.14% | 13.54% | 10.07% | 12.06% | 9.89% | 13.54% | 11.76% | 12.79% | 12.98% | 15.21% | 11.27% | |
| Max Increase | 53.95% | 31.10% | 25.15% | 34.77% | 22.74% | 32.52% | 33.42% | 41.40% | 35.19% | 44.44% | 22.29% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 18 | 18 | 17 | 17 | 17 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 11 | 12 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.83% | -1.93% | -1.31% | -3.67% | -4.76% | -1.28% | -3.22% | -1.93% | -3.14% | -2.22% | -0.50% | |
| Max Decline | -8.33% | -11.25% | -5.29% | -11.27% | -14.96% | -10.16% | -9.56% | -4.49% | -15.38% | -13.14% | -3.52% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 9 | 7 | 4 | 12 | 11 | 7 | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 2 | |
| 2023 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||||
| Action | Yes | No | Yes | Not Yet | ||||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
