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ScenarioSM Study for April RBOB Gasoline(NYM) as of Dec 31, 2010 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Mar | Apr | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb |
Tested Years | 4 | 14 | 17 | 20 | 24 | 24 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | 25 | |
Closed Higher | 4 | 8 | 12 | 14 | 14 | 11 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 16 | 12 | |
Exceeded High | 4 | 6 | 12 | 12 | 13 | 9 | 7 | 9 | 13 | 13 | 12 | |
Scenario Percentage | 100% | 75% | 100% | 86% | 93% | 82% | 58% | 75% | 100% | 81% | 100% | |
Avg Max Increase | 17.06% | 10.54% | 9.14% | 11.27% | 7.77% | 7.44% | 10.68% | 14.68% | 10.81% | 13.86% | 11.10% | |
Max Increase | 28.83% | 14.66% | 27.24% | 54.45% | 28.85% | 18.46% | 17.20% | 27.12% | 33.52% | 30.03% | 24.67% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 19 | 19 | 20 | 17 | 14 | 18 | 23 | 14 | 17 | 19 | 21 | |
Avg Max Decline | 0.17% | -2.91% | -2.07% | -1.06% | -1.17% | -2.76% | -2.21% | -1.75% | -1.79% | -5.85% | -4.04% | |
Max Decline | -2.21% | -11.05% | -11.95% | -7.78% | -8.21% | -9.33% | -5.20% | -8.51% | -9.66% | -17.22% | -10.79% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 2 | 3 | 13 | 9 | 10 | 4 | 15 | 4 | 10 | 12 | 6 | |
2010 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||
Action | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.