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MRCI's Scenario Study

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MRCI's ScenarioSM Study
ScenarioSM Study for May Silver(CMX) as of Dec 31, 2010
Condition 1: Higher Monthly Close.
Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Higher   15 27 18 26 19 20 24 26 20 19 15
Exceeded High   10 19 11 18 15 17 20 20 13 12 12
Scenario Percentage   67% 70% 61% 69% 79% 85% 83% 77% 65% 63% 80%
Avg Max Increase   11.49% 12.60% 21.19% 12.06% 14.53% 20.83% 20.43% 15.80% 9.08% 14.39% 8.79%
Max Increase   22.00% 80.59% 68.28% 32.02% 67.55% 114.83% 93.80% 57.31% 26.58% 57.48% 13.70%
Avg Days To Max Increase   17 17 20 18 14 18 14 17 11 12 16
Avg Max Decline   -1.44% -3.22% -1.70% -3.17% -2.61% -1.20% -2.25% -3.04% -1.74% -2.25% -2.98%
Max Decline   -3.97% -12.99% -10.63% -11.70% -10.51% -9.71% -9.88% -14.63% -5.30% -8.31% -8.88%
Avg Days to Max Decline   6 12 5 7 6 5 9 7 5 9 3
2010 Contract Condition     Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes
Action     Yes Yes Yes   Yes     Yes Yes Yes
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Condition 2: Lower Monthly Close.
Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
Tested Month May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr
Tested Years   44 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 45
Closed Lower   29 18 27 18 26 25 21 19 24 25 29
Penetrated Low   21 14 17 15 18 20 16 13 17 20 18
Scenario Percentage   72% 78% 63% 83% 69% 80% 76% 68% 71% 80% 62%
Avg Max Decline   6.07% 5.39% 9.27% 10.99% 7.76% 8.56% 8.97% 7.12% 11.07% 10.12% 6.01%
Max Decline   19.34% 14.16% 37.73% 30.41% 24.05% 33.72% 24.91% 17.40% 64.63% 43.31% 17.74%
Avg Days To Max Decline   16 20 19 19 13 17 19 17 19 17 15
Avg Max Increase   -2.22% -4.21% -1.90% -2.58% -2.58% -2.73% -3.58% -3.61% -2.89% -2.42% -2.22%
Max Increase   -7.63% -29.85% -15.43% -8.58% -7.99% -9.77% -12.06% -6.78% -11.28% -8.43% -10.00%
Avg Days to Max Increase   11 8 11 11 7 9 17 12 13 6 4
2010 Contract Condition   Yes       Yes   Yes Yes      
Action   Yes       No   Yes Yes      
High 1570.3 1607.0 1408.1 1513.0 1748.7 1800.0 1894.5 1949.5 1890.0 1696.0 1766.5 1876.5
Low 1256.5 1364.5 1264.0 1396.0 1504.0 1616.5 1635.5 1680.0 1604.0 1468.0 1633.0 1747.5
Close/Last 1570.3 1368.6 1403.1 1497.6 1670.7 1630.1 1854.5 1686.6 1621.1 1652.1 1752.6 1861.1

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