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ScenarioSM Study for July Silver(CMX) as of Jan 01, 2019 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 19 | 27 | 20 | 17 | 22 | 27 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 24 | 14 | |
Exceeded High | 13 | 17 | 12 | 14 | 21 | 20 | 14 | 12 | 14 | 17 | 10 | |
Scenario Percentage | 68% | 63% | 60% | 82% | 95% | 74% | 61% | 67% | 82% | 71% | 71% | |
Avg Max Increase | 20.16% | 12.95% | 17.41% | 23.19% | 19.17% | 15.27% | 11.64% | 17.57% | 8.98% | 8.89% | 8.85% | |
Max Increase | 68.96% | 33.89% | 67.69% | 113.82% | 93.28% | 56.94% | 47.41% | 57.27% | 15.57% | 27.24% | 20.69% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 18 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 18 | 14 | 13 | 16 | 11 | 13 | |
Avg Max Decline | -1.17% | -2.93% | -3.07% | -1.30% | -2.92% | -2.03% | -2.40% | -2.49% | -3.49% | -2.68% | -1.03% | |
Max Decline | -9.66% | -10.44% | -10.22% | -9.41% | -14.79% | -7.94% | -8.88% | -6.28% | -11.16% | -10.00% | -4.85% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 4 | 8 | 4 | 5 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 8 | 6 | 8 | 3 | |
2018 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | No | Yes | No | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.