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ScenarioSM Study for May Soybeans(CBOT) as of May 20, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 21 | 20 | 22 | 19 | 23 | 27 | 20 | 22 | 24 | 26 | 25 | |
Exceeded High | 15 | 12 | 17 | 13 | 19 | 18 | 17 | 19 | 21 | 21 | 14 | |
Scenario Percentage | 71% | 60% | 77% | 68% | 83% | 67% | 85% | 86% | 88% | 81% | 56% | |
Avg Max Increase | 11.46% | 10.95% | 8.74% | 10.69% | 7.92% | 7.04% | 8.80% | 8.25% | 7.68% | 8.28% | 4.87% | |
Max Increase | 49.09% | 30.88% | 30.28% | 20.56% | 26.01% | 22.99% | 30.41% | 29.29% | 14.97% | 22.90% | 9.35% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 15 | 15 | 15 | 18 | 21 | 14 | 17 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 10 | |
Avg Max Decline | -0.49% | -2.39% | -1.03% | -2.02% | -2.58% | -2.01% | -2.32% | -1.93% | -1.72% | -1.74% | -1.14% | |
Max Decline | -3.82% | -6.74% | -3.73% | -5.75% | -10.89% | -5.30% | -9.44% | -7.40% | -5.45% | -5.01% | -2.62% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 5 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 11 | 8 | 7 | 9 | 2 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
Action | Yes | No | No | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.