MRCI Online
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| ScenarioSM Study for May Soybean Meal(CBOT) as of May 20, 2024 | ||||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
| Tested Month | May | Jun | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr |
| Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
| Closed Higher | 23 | 19 | 24 | 18 | 20 | 24 | 19 | 25 | 21 | 28 | 26 | |
| Exceeded High | 17 | 12 | 20 | 15 | 15 | 16 | 15 | 18 | 18 | 19 | 15 | |
| Scenario Percentage | 74% | 63% | 83% | 83% | 75% | 67% | 79% | 72% | 86% | 68% | 58% | |
| Avg Max Increase | 11.87% | 11.26% | 9.03% | 11.55% | 10.18% | 10.25% | 9.50% | 11.48% | 9.85% | 10.84% | 6.08% | |
| Max Increase | 37.18% | 23.73% | 31.71% | 22.51% | 21.50% | 25.29% | 22.64% | 28.27% | 24.53% | 36.48% | 11.24% | |
| Avg Days To Max Increase | 16 | 14 | 14 | 15 | 19 | 15 | 18 | 19 | 19 | 12 | 8 | |
| Avg Max Decline | -1.43% | -1.98% | -1.34% | -2.16% | -3.05% | -2.14% | -2.87% | -2.24% | -2.50% | -2.26% | -1.50% | |
| Max Decline | -11.10% | -5.97% | -6.62% | -6.65% | -9.93% | -5.80% | -9.58% | -8.08% | -7.04% | -6.81% | -3.67% | |
| Avg Days to Max Decline | 8 | 7 | 7 | 5 | 9 | 9 | 12 | 7 | 9 | 9 | 2 | |
| 2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | ||||||
| Action | No | Yes | Yes | No | Yes | Yes | ||||||
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.
