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ScenarioSM Study for July Wheat(CBOT) as of May 20, 2024 | ||||||||||||
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Condition 1:
Higher Monthly Close. Action ---> Buy that month's close with objective of exceeding month's high within 2 months. | ||||||||||||
Tested Month | Jul | Aug | Sep | Oct | Nov | Dec | Jan | Feb | Mar | Apr | May | Jun |
Tested Years | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | 45 | |
Closed Higher | 24 | 27 | 28 | 19 | 21 | 23 | 18 | 17 | 22 | 18 | 18 | |
Exceeded High | 17 | 22 | 19 | 13 | 18 | 18 | 13 | 13 | 16 | 11 | 8 | |
Scenario Percentage | 71% | 81% | 68% | 68% | 86% | 78% | 72% | 76% | 73% | 61% | 44% | |
Avg Max Increase | 7.72% | 6.89% | 6.82% | 9.83% | 11.20% | 8.97% | 15.75% | 12.47% | 12.97% | 16.10% | 7.81% | |
Max Increase | 15.97% | 17.15% | 18.88% | 20.41% | 63.12% | 45.71% | 39.39% | 35.10% | 39.86% | 32.52% | 15.01% | |
Avg Days To Max Increase | 17 | 14 | 19 | 19 | 15 | 14 | 16 | 16 | 14 | 15 | 6 | |
Avg Max Decline | -3.49% | -2.16% | -2.52% | -3.90% | -2.97% | -2.33% | -4.48% | -3.39% | -2.85% | -1.83% | -1.49% | |
Max Decline | -7.47% | -7.27% | -11.64% | -15.44% | -9.19% | -8.18% | -14.54% | -7.75% | -9.71% | -6.71% | -6.22% | |
Avg Days to Max Decline | 11 | 9 | 12 | 13 | 12 | 10 | 10 | 10 | 6 | 5 | 2 | |
2024 Contract Condition | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | Yes | |||||||
Action | Yes | Yes | No | Yes |
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Action ---> Sell that month's close with objective of penetrating month's low within 2 months.