I don't know what the strategies are. I only see getting in and out. That's not a strategy. On what basis do you place the trade which year correlations somewhere seasonal etc.
MRCI's seasonal strategies are merely the results of statistical analysis of historical price movement. For example, we take the price on Day #1 for Market ABC for each of the last 15 years and compare them to prices on Days #8 through Days #90. If prices are higher (or lower) on any of those Days #8-90 than on
Day #1 in at least 80% of those years, we believe it to be significant enough to consider further and apply various other measures.
If we present a strategy that says "Buy ABC on May 10 and Sell on June 23," all that says is that the price of ABC has closed higher on June 23 than on May 10 in at least 12 of the last 15 years. That is research and is not necessarily meant to be traded literally (although each year we publish all results as if they were traded exactly as published). We believe that market movement such as that suggests a strong tendency for markets to move in that same direction each year --- in other words, there is likely to be some underlying fundamental condition or event (harvest or fiscal year, e. g.) that recurs every year and affects that market to one degree or another and in a more or less timely manner.
That is not to say it will always do so or, even when it does, in a given year it may not do so in a straight line (for each strategy we present we list the worst drawdown and best equity between the entry and exit dates).
However, a trader who knows these tendencies well in advance is way ahead of most traders who react to day-to-day news. He can be on the lookout for that market to do so again, even if it is best to enter earlier or later than published dates. It can also keep him from jumping in on the wrong side at the wrong time.
Essentially, these "strategies" are actually valuable research tools for any trader, be he a fundamental or technical trader. They are meant as trading ideas to which one's own fundamental knowledge, trading tools or techniques, and market perspective are best applied.
I hope that helps and perhaps persuades you to give us another chance.
Jerry Toepke
Day #1 in at least 80% of those years, we believe it to be significant enough to consider further and apply various other measures.
If we present a strategy that says "Buy ABC on May 10 and Sell on June 23," all that says is that the price of ABC has closed higher on June 23 than on May 10 in at least 12 of the last 15 years. That is research and is not necessarily meant to be traded literally (although each year we publish all results as if they were traded exactly as published). We believe that market movement such as that suggests a strong tendency for markets to move in that same direction each year --- in other words, there is likely to be some underlying fundamental condition or event (harvest or fiscal year, e. g.) that recurs every year and affects that market to one degree or another and in a more or less timely manner.
That is not to say it will always do so or, even when it does, in a given year it may not do so in a straight line (for each strategy we present we list the worst drawdown and best equity between the entry and exit dates).
However, a trader who knows these tendencies well in advance is way ahead of most traders who react to day-to-day news. He can be on the lookout for that market to do so again, even if it is best to enter earlier or later than published dates. It can also keep him from jumping in on the wrong side at the wrong time.
Essentially, these "strategies" are actually valuable research tools for any trader, be he a fundamental or technical trader. They are meant as trading ideas to which one's own fundamental knowledge, trading tools or techniques, and market perspective are best applied.
I hope that helps and perhaps persuades you to give us another chance.
Jerry Toepke
