*Please note: If you are a current MRCI Online subscriber, you can view current MRCI Online Updates here: http://www.mrci.com/client/update.php
To MRCI Online Subscribers (05/14/2025):
MRCI SEASONAL ACTION REPORT: This report is updated daily on the website and is meant as a tool to organize and monitor trade actions for the following week:
Trade Exits:
Selling Aug25 Natural Gas(NYM) on Tue 5/20 close to liquidate long
Buying Jun25 EuroFX(CME) on Fri 5/23 close to liquidate short
Buying Jul25 Coffee "C"(ICE) on Fri 5/23 close to liquidate short
Buying Jun25 Australian Dollar(CME) on Fri 5/23 close to liquidate short
Buying Jun25 New Zealand Dollar(CME) on Fri 5/23 close to liquidate short
Trade Entries:
Selling Jul25 Platinum(NYMEX) on Mon 5/19 close to initiate short
Trade has been profitable 15 of last 15 yrs - Average: $3490
Selling Jul25 Wheat(KCBT) on Mon 5/19 close to initiate short
Trade has been profitable 12 of last 15 yrs - Average: $2057
Selling Nov25 Natural Gas(NYM) on Mon 5/19 close to initiate short
Trade has been profitable 13 of last 15 yrs - Average: $2801
Selling Jul25 Copper(CMX) on Tue 5/20 close to initiate short
Trade has been profitable 13 of last 15 yrs - Average: $2846
Buying Sep25 E-mini DJIA Index(CBOT) on Fri 5/23 close to initiate long
Trade has been profitable 15 of last 15 yrs - Average: $3412
Spread Exits:
Sell Sep25 RBOB Gasoline(NYM)/Buy Sep25 Crude Oil(NYM)
on Thu 5/15 (#6063).
Selling Jun25 Mexican Peso(CME)/Buying Jun25 EuroFX(CME)
on Fri 5/16 (#6068).
Selling Jul25 RBOB Gasoline(NYM)/Buying Dec25 RBOB Gasoline(NYM)
on Mon 5/19 (#6070).
Selling Jun25 Mexican Peso(CME)/Buying Jun25 Australian Dollar(CME)
on Fri 5/23 (#6066).
Spread Entries:
Buying Jun25 Swiss Franc(CME)/Selling Jun25 EuroFX(CME)
on Mon 5/19 (#6072).
Trade has been profitable 14 of last 15 yrs - Average: $921
Buying Nov25 Soybeans(CBOT)/Selling Sep25 Soybeans(CBOT)
on Mon 5/19 (#6073).
Trade has been profitable 15 of last 15 yrs - Average: $491
Buying Dec25 Cotton(ICE)/Selling Jul25 Cotton(ICE)
on Mon 5/19 (#6074).
Trade has been profitable 13 of last 15 yrs - Average: $1109
Buying Sep25 30-Year T-Bonds(CBOT)/Selling Sep25 10-Year T-Notes(CBOT)
on Mon 5/19 (#6075).
Trade has been profitable 14 of last 15 yrs - Average: $2126
Buying Nov25 Soybeans(CBOT)/Selling Dec25 Wheat(KCBT)
on Wed 5/21 (#6076).
Trade has been profitable 13 of last 15 yrs - Average: $2285
INTERMARKET CORRELATION STUDIES:
MRCI posts daily calculations of Intermarket Correlations in one
convenient table in which can easily be seen how closely more than
35 different markets correlate in the same or opposite direction
over the last 30-, 60-, 90-, 120-, and 180-day periods (which one
can toggle between). Correlation does not equal causation, but a
quantified perspective on how a given market correlates with another
can be a powerful trading tool and source of knowledge.
A few current extreme and/or interesting correlations include:
(Please note contract changeovers in table affect correlation rates.)
CORRELATION STUDIES:
Correlation studies usually do not change on a day-to-day basis,
especially when multi-year, multi-contract, and all with
relatively high correlation numbers. HOWEVER, please be aware
that they can change much more quickly than normal during periods
of extreme volatility.
In addition, analyzing correlation studies is subjective, and one
must use them as a tool rather than as a trading system. You must
realize that even high correlation studies can follow a market
pattern for an extended period of time and then suddenly deviate
from this expected pattern. We like to look at correlation studies
as giving us a roadmap as to where the price might go. Then we use
other short-term trading tools for navigating the markets on a
daily basis.
S&P 500 Index:
Surprisingly, currently NO correlations showing up. This is very unusual.
Nasdaq 100 E-Mini(CME):
Very unusual for NO correlations to show up in both cash and futures.
DAX (Eurex):
Five-year correlation on cash market suggesting sideways movement and
two-year correlation on June futures suggesting the same.
30-year US Treasury:
Two-year correlation for YIELD suggests lower into June.
10-year US Treasury:
Four-year correlation for September futures projects higher into expiration.
5-year US Treasury:
Three-year correlation for September suggests higher price into September.
2-year US Treasury:
Two-year correlation for June suggest slightly higher into expiration.
One-year correlation for September suggests sideways into expiration.
Gold (CMX):
Seven-year correlation for cash market projects modestly higher
into July; Three year study for June futures suggests spike high in late-May
followed by sharp break into June. Two-year correlation for August suggest
pullback into mid-June. Oct futures three-year correlation suggests
higher into July, then sideways to lower through expiration. Two-year
correlation for December suggests small rally, followed by lows in first
week of June, with rally into early September.
EuroFX (CME):
One-year correlation for September suggests sideways until late August,
then lower into expiration.
Swiss Franc (CME):
One-year correlation for December futures projects rally into first week
of August, followed by sharp break into October.
Japanese Yen (CME):
One-year correlation for September suggest choppy market over the next
couple months, with a rally peak in mid-August. Four-year correlation
for December suggest higher into first of August, then lower into expiration.
British Pound (CME):
One-year correlation for September suggest pullback during May, followed
by a rally to a peak first week of July, followed by a break into August.
Three-year correlation for December small rally into May, followed by slight
break into August, before rallying into expiration.
Canadian Dollar (CME):
Two-year correlation for cash market suggests rallying into mid-July.
Two-year correlation for June suggest sharp rally into late May.
Two-year correlation for September suggest a rally into first week of
November, followed by sideways movement into expiration.
Three-year correlation for December suggest sideways movement with a
low around last week of July, with a rally to new highs around the
first of November.
Mexican Peso (CME):
Two-year correlation for December suggest strong rally into expiration.
Australian Dollar (CME):
One-year correlation for cash suggest sideways until early June, followed
by a break into first of July. One-year correlation for June contract
suggest sharp break through expiration.
US Dollar Index (ICE):
Six-year correlation for December suggesting short rally followed by a
decline into late July, with a sharp rally into mid-September.
Natural Gas (NYM):
Surprisingly, currently no correlations showing up.
Coffee (ICE):
Correlations for cash market and study for May, July, and
September futures suggest sideways to lower through September.
Orange Juice (ICE):
Five-year correlation for September & seven-year correlation
for November futures suggest choppy sideways into expiry.
Rough Rice (CBOT):
Seven-year correlations for July, and three-year correlation
for September futures project sideways into July.
Soybean Meal (CBOT):
Two-year correlation for December projects sideways into early
June, followed by sharp rally into early November.
Corn (CBOT):
Three-year correlation for cash suggests higher into June.
Live Cattle(CME):
Eight-year correlation for cash market projects moderately lower
into June/July; eight-year study for June and nine-year study for
August futures suggest higher into June/July; nine-year study
October projects generally sideways/higher.
Feeder Cattle (CME):
Twelve-year correlation for cash market suggests sideways into May/June;
eleven-year study for August, twelve-year September, thirteen-year October
& six-year study for November project bull market to continue for months.
Lean Hogs (CME):
One-year correlation for July projects higher from late May into mid-June.
Class III Milk (CME):
One-year correlation for June futures projects double bottom in May,
with big bull into expiry. One-year correlation for November suggest
sharp break into expiration.
PLEASE REMEMBER: These are NOT trading recommendations. They are provided
for informational purposes only and are intended only as potential ideas
based on the market's own performance in the past, but past performance is
not necessarily indicative of future results. Futures trading involves
substantial risk of loss.
SEASONAL TENDENCIES ARE A COMPOSITE OF SOME OF THE MORE CONSISTENT
COMMODITY FUTURES SEASONALS THAT HAVE OCCURRED OVER THE PAST 15 YEARS.
THERE ARE USUALLY UNDERLYING FUNDAMENTAL CIRCUMSTANCES THAT OCCUR
ANNUALLY THAT TEND TO CAUSE THE FUTURES MARKETS TO REACT IN A SIMILAR
DIRECTIONAL MANNER DURING A CERTAIN CALENDAR PERIOD OF THE YEAR. EVEN
IF A SEASONAL TENDENCY OCCURS IN THE FUTURE, IT MAY NOT RESULT IN
A PROFITABLE TRANSACTION AS FEES AND THE TIMING OF THE ENTRY AND
LIQUIDATION MAY IMPACT ON THE RESULTS. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE
THAT ANY ACCOUNT HAS IN THE PAST OR WILL IN THE FUTURE ACHIEVE PROFITS
UTILIZING THESE STRATEGIES. NO REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT PRICE
PATTERNS WILL RECUR IN THE FUTURE. HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
HAVE MANY INHERENT LIMITATIONS, SOME OF WHICH ARE DESCRIBED BELOW. NO
REPRESENTATION IS BEING MADE THAT ANY ACCOUNT WILL OR IS LIKELY TO
ACHIEVE PROFITS OR LOSSES SIMILAR TO THOSE SHOWN. IN FACT, THERE ARE
FREQUENTLY SHARP DIFFERENCES BETWEEN HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS
AND THE ACTUAL RESULTS SUBSEQUENTLY ACHIEVED BY ANY PARTICULAR TRADING
RESULTS PROGRAM. ONE OF THE LIMITATIONS OF HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE
IS THAT THEY ARE GENERALLY PREPARED WITH THE BENEFIT OF HINDSIGHT. IN
ADDITION, HYPOTHETICAL TRADING DOES NOT INVOLVE FINANCIAL RISK, AND NO
HYPOTHETICAL TRADING RECORD CAN COMPLETELY ACCOUNT FOR THE IMPACT OF
FINANCIAL RISK IN ACTUAL TRADING. FOR EXAMPLE, THE ABILITY TO WITHSTAND
LOSSES OR ADHERE TO A PARTICULAR TRADING PROGRAM IN SPITE OF TRADING
LOSSES ARE MATERIAL POINTS WHICH CAN ALSO ADVERSELY AFFECT ACTUAL
TRADING RESULTS. THERE ARE NUMEROUS OTHER FACTORS RELATED TO THE
MARKETS IN GENERAL OR TO THE IMPLEMENTATION OF ANY SPECIFIC TRADING
PROGRAM WHICH CANNOT BE FULLY ACCOUNTED FOR IN THE PREPARATION OF
HYPOTHETICAL PERFORMANCE RESULTS AND ALL OF WHICH CAN ADVERSELY AFFECT
ACTUAL TRADING RESULTS. RESULTS NOT ADJUSTED FOR COMMISSION AND
SLIPPAGE.
Best Wishes,
Steve Moore
Nick Colley
Melissa Moore
Mary Hatfield
MRCI - Eugene, OR
(541) 525-0521
http://www.mrci.com
email:
This e-mail address is being protected from spambots. You need JavaScript enabled to view it
Keep up with MRCI on Twitter & Facebook
Special Deals-Updates-Answers
Copyright (c) 1989-2025 Moore Research Center, Inc.
Redistributing this MRCI Online Update in ANY form or sharing
your website access codes without written authorization from
Moore Research Center, Inc., violates both our copyright and
the rights of our paid subscribers. Violators will lose access
and all other subscription rights --- WITHOUT REFUND.
